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According to the latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the National Climate Center (NCC), the record-breaking "Super El Niño" event is expected to have a significant impact on China's weather during the 2026/2027 winter, creating a pattern of overall warmer temperatures but with frequent and intense cold waves, alongside above-average precipitation nationwide.

🌡️ The Driving Force: A Record "Super El Niño"

An ultra-strong El Niño event formed in the equatorial Middle and Eastern Pacific in September 2026 and intensified into the strongest event on record by October, with peak sea surface temperature anomalies projected to exceed 3.2°C. It is expected to peak in late autumn or early winter and persist throughout the entire winter season, serving as the most dominant factor shaping China's climate pattern this winter.

🌡️ Temperature Outlook: Warmer Overall, But Highly Volatile

The winter average temperature is forecast to be generally above normal across most of the country. However, this warmth will not be stable. A key feature is frequent cold waves and large temperature fluctuations, with a pattern of "cold early winter, warm late winter" (前冬冷、后冬暖).

  • Regional Exception: Unlike most of the country, northeastern Inner Mongolia and western Northeast China are expected to see temperatures slightly below normal.
  • Timing of Extremes: The months of December and January are highlighted as a period when frequent, stage-wise strong cooling and strong warming events are likely to occur.

🌧️ Precipitation Outlook: Generally Wetter Than Normal

Nationwide precipitation is forecast to be above average. This breaks down into two distinct regional risks:

  • Northern China: A higher frequency of strong snowfall events is expected.
  • Southern China: Precipitation will be significantly above normal. Specifically, regions including southwestern East China, south-central Central China, northern South China, and eastern Southwest China face an elevated risk of periodic low-temperature rain, snow, and freezing weather.

⚠️ Key Risks and Hazards to Watch

The combination of these factors points to several specific risks:

  1. Compound Extreme Events in the South: The overlap of cold air outbreaks with abundant moisture raises the risk of freezing rain and snow disasters in southern regions, which can severely impact transportation, power infrastructure, and agriculture.
  2. Heavy Snow in the North: Northern regions should prepare for intense and frequent snowstorms that could disrupt travel and daily life.
  3. Sharp Temperature Swings: The rapid alternation between strong warming and strong cooling, particularly in December and January, poses health risks and challenges for energy supply and agriculture.

💎 Summary

In short, this winter will not be a uniformly mild one. While the seasonal average may lean warm, the dominant story is one of disruption—marked by sharp temperature swings, a higher frequency of cold waves, and a heightened risk of both heavy snow in the north and freezing rain in the south. The influence of this record Super El Niño is expected to be far-reaching, and its role in potentially making 2027 one of the hottest years on record globally is also a key concern.