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Beijing is projected to become a "severely aging" or "super-aged" society by 2035, when more than 33 percent of its residents—roughly one in every three—will be aged 60 or older.

The Current Baseline

As of the end of 2025, Beijing had 5.288 million permanent residents aged 60 and above, accounting for 24.3 percent of the city's total population. This means the capital is already an aging society by conventional thresholds; the 2035 projection represents a further, substantial shift over the following decade.

What "Severely Aging" Means

The terminology reflects a demographic threshold. When a population aged 60 and above exceeds 30 percent of the total, the society is typically classified as "severely aging" (重度老龄化) or "super-aged". Beijing crossing the 33 percent mark by 2035 would place it firmly in this category.

The Driving Forces

The projection is driven by two converging demographic trends. First, birth rates in China have continued to decline, meaning fewer young people will be entering the workforce and supporting the elderly population in the coming decades. Second, life expectancy has been rising, expanding the number of people who reach older age. As a megacity with advanced healthcare and living standards, Beijing is at the forefront of this national demographic transition.

How Beijing Is Responding

Beijing has been rolling out a multi-layered policy response, treating elderly care as both a social welfare priority and an economic sector.

Legal and Institutional Framework

In January 2026, Beijing enacted the "Beijing Municipality Elderly Care Service Regulations," making it the first city in China to establish a three-tier elderly care service network—covering districts, subdistricts/townships, and communities/villages—through local legislation.

Financial Subsidies and Pensions

The city has steadily raised basic pensions for urban and rural residents. In 2025 alone, it disbursed approximately 3.51 billion yuan (about $525 million) in elderly care allowances and subsidies, benefiting 11.958 million person-times among older people facing financial hardship, those unable to care for themselves, and the advanced elderly. Separate old-age allowances provide monthly payments of 100 yuan for those aged 80–89, 500 yuan for 90–99, and 800 yuan for centenarians.

Service Infrastructure

Beijing currently has:

  • 620 registered elderly care institutions
  • 168 regional care centers
  • Over 1,500 community care stations
  • A total of 155,000 beds across various facility types

The city is also developing a "15-minute elderly care service circle." Nearly 3,000 meal service sites now cover 90 percent of urban and rural communities, and the city plans to add 30,000 home-based elderly care beds over the next three years.

Medical Integration

Beijing aims for over 95 percent of secondary and higher-level general hospitals to establish geriatric medicine departments by 2030. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it plans to develop 60,000 inclusive care beds and raise the proportion of nursing-care beds in elderly care institutions to 73 percent, while adding dedicated dementia care units.

The "Mutual Aid" Model

In a notable innovation, Beijing has promoted a "mutual aid elderly care" program that encourages relatively healthy retirees in their 60s to provide basic daily care and social support to older, more frail residents in their communities. The goal is to establish these facilities across 70 percent of urban and rural communities by 2030, before creating a more institutionalized system by 2035. The model is presented as a community-based solution, though analysts have noted it also reflects the financial and structural pressures on formal care systems.

The Broader Context

Beijing's trajectory mirrors a national trend. By the end of 2025, China had approximately 323 million people aged 60 and above, or about 23 percent of the total population. For the first time in modern Chinese history, the share of citizens aged 65 and older exceeded the share of children aged 14 and under. Beijing's experience as a leading megacity offers both a preview of the challenges ahead and a testing ground for policy responses that may inform other regions.